Merger simulator
TSLA SPCX
01
Position
TSLA shares
02
Prices
TSLA
$1.34T
$340
SPCX
$1.90T
$140
At announcement · 7-day volume-weighted average
03
Scenario
1 TSLA3.83 SPCX
Tesla ownership50.0%
Value per TSLA$536
Announced
Closes365 days
Advanced
TSLA outstanding
M
SPCX outstanding
M
2025 award
Unearned award
M
Shares per level
M
Award at close1 / 1216.9M retained
TSLA at close3.54B
04
Protection
Tesla ownership46% — 51%
Value per TSLA$400 — $800
Advanced
Tesla downside$400
Tesla upside$800
SpaceX downside4.03 SPCX51%
SpaceX upside3.20 SPCX46%
A01-VOTE
critical alert.
Majority without a vote
Short sellers drive SpaceX into the 7-day average, the floor answers with more shares, and former Tesla holders end up funding over half the combined company while holding 17.0% of the votes. Musk keeps 70.7% through ten-vote stock, so the premium buys economics and never control.
B03-SQZ
warning alert.
Squeeze the average
Traders sell SpaceX into the 7-day average and hold Tesla. Every dollar off SpaceX buys Tesla more shares, and Tesla holders collect them.
05
Performance
BelowAtExceeds
BelowAtExceeds
06
Outcome
Grok 4.6